The Annual Risk Analysis (ARA) is Frontex’ strategic risk analysis report that identifies the key risks to the external borders of the EU.

Annual Risk Analysis 2025/2026 European Border and Coast Guard Agency – Frontex Plac Europejski 6 • 00-844 Warsaw • Poland frontex@frontex.europa.eu • www.frontex.europa.eu Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2025 ©European Border and Coast Guard Agency (Frontex), 2025 FPI-25.0070 Warsaw, May 2025 Reproduction is authorised provided the source is acknowledged. PRINT ISBN 978-92-9411-196-8 DOI: 10.2819/4437128 TT-01-25-031-EN-C ISSN 1977-4451 PDF ISBN 978-92-9411-195-1 DOI: 10.2819/7710468 TT-01-25-031-EN-N ISSN 1977-446X Annual Risk Analysis 2025/2026 Table of Contents 1. FOREWORD 6 2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 7 3. INTRODUCTION 8 4. EASTERN BORDERS 8 5. SOUTH-EASTERN BORDERS 10 6. SOUTHERN BORDERS 12 7. SOUTH-WESTERN BORDERS 14 8. AIR BORDERS 16 9. OUTLOOK 18 4 Abbreviations AES Alliance of Sahel States ARA Annual Risk Analysis AUSSOM African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia BCP border-crossing point EBCG European Border and Coast Guard ECOWAS Economic Community of West African States EES Entry/Exit System EIBM European Integrated Border Management ETIAS European Travel Information and Authorisation System EU European Union Frontex European Border and Coast Guard Agency GNU Government of National Unity IDP internally displaced person IBC illegal border-crossing ISIS Islamic State of Iraq and Syria MS EU Member State OCG organised crime group PMC private military company UNSCR United Nations Security Council...